Understanding the estimated time to conception percentages.

In this module, you saw a table to help you to estimate your client’s time to conception based on:

• the number of intercourse encounters per cycle
• when during the menstrual cycle those encounters are
• the type of cervical mucus present during those days

But what do those estimated time to conception percentages really mean?

Can you reply on them 100% when speaking with clients?

First, let’s take another look at that table: Estimated Time to Conception Table

The part that we are going to focus on is the last 3 columns highlighted (in the red box) in the image above: % of cases for the estimated time to conception.

Scarpa’s Time To Conception Model uses statistics to estimates how long it can take a woman to conceive, assuming that they and their partner have ideal health) based on

• How flexible is the couple regarding the timing of intercourse
• How frequently the couple is willing to have intercourse

These last 3 columns (50%, 75%, 90% of cases) describe the relevant percentile of the distribution (obtained by simulation) of the number of cycles until conception for couples who use the rules depicted in the first 3 columns of the table.

So in the first scenario, if 100 healthy couples are engaging in sexual intercourse once a day for 20 days (non-menstrual days) within a 28-day cycle. How quickly will they be likely to conceive?

Statistically speaking, based on Scarpa’s Time to Conception Model, most of the women in these couples (about 90 of the 100 couples) are likely to become pregnant within 1 to 3 cycles.

But what percentage of them might get pregnant during the first cycle? About 50% (about 50 of the 100 couples) might. But remember that is NOT guaranteed.

And what percentage of all women might need to go through 2 cycles before they manage to conceive? Potentially 75% of them (about 75 of the 100 couples).

But again, this is NOT guaranteed.

As you can see, these are all estimates.

And it is based on an ideal population.

So when speaking with your client, you want to make sure to high this.

You are NOT guaranteeing that they will definitely become pregnant during this time if they have those number of encounters on these specific days of their cycle.
Instead, you are providing them with an estimate of how long it may take them under ideal conditions.

And as you continue through your certification, you’ll be learning how to help your client reduce factors which can lower their fertility odds which would make their average time to conception longer.

After all, your client is likely coming to you to help them get pregnant ASAP.

So, the best way to manage client expectations is to provide them with the following range: In an ideal situation, most women (90% of them) will need between 1 to 3 cycles in order to conceive based on having 20 encounters per month which include their fertile widow and the days both before and after this window (Scenario 1).

Updated on: 29/10/2026